Why Are Foreign Reports Outpacing U.S. Ones on CDC VAERS?

In my weekly updates to a piece on how half of adverse effects reported for any vaccine since 1990 to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) are for COVID-19 vaccines that became available in December 2020 [*1], I noticed a curious anomaly. Despite being a U.S. reporting system under the CDC (accessible here [*2]), foreign reports are accepted, and, astonishingly, greatly outpace the U.S. ones, especially regarding the COVID-19 vaccines.

Even though this piece focuses on the disparity in data-reporting more than the substance of the reports, our lovely detractors will bring up the usual caveats about VAERS reporting via their feckless "fact checks." So let's get that part out of the way first before getting to the heart of the analysis. 

The Usual VAERS Caveats
Reporting on VAERS may be done by healthcare professionals, which make most of the reports, or by individuals and family experiencing adverse effects from a vaccine. It's entirely voluntary. A 2010 report on the efficacy of VAERS submitted to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) stated [*3]:

[F]ewer than 1% of vaccine adverse events are reported. … Barriers to reporting include a lack of clinician awareness, uncertainty about when and what to report, as well as the burden of reporting: reporting is not part of the clinician's usual workflow, takes time, and is duplicative.

Employers forcing workers to get vaccinated for COVID-19 would normally report related injuries to the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA), but OSHA suspended its reporting requirements for adverse effects related to COVID-19 vaccines through May of 2022 [*4]. So, while imperfect, VAERS is presently the best tool we have to discern the dangers of COVID-19 vaccines.

A report on VAERS does not mean the vaccine in question specifically caused the adverse event described. The reports are meant to trigger investigations and assist regulatory agencies in their policies, regulations, and recommendations.

Meanwhile, individual death reports for COVID-19 are not readily available to the public, but reporting is mandatory. The CDC issued a memo in April 2020 to writers of death certificates stating mere speculation of COVID-19 or a positive COVID-19 test [*4] meets the requirement to place COVID-19 on a death report. Dying within 28 days of an unrelated positive COVID-19 test also means the death is chalked up to COVID. Healthcare providers are paid by Medicaid (for the poor) and Medicare (for the elderly) $13,000 per COVID-19 patient and $39,000 if placed on a ventilator [*5]; so getting that positive COVID-19 test pays.

Testing more people, regardless of whether such a test is necessary, means more money for the healthcare provider, especially since the polymerase chain reaction tests (PCR) used to discern COVID-19 are grossly inaccurate (due to their cycle thresholds being set too high) and susceptible to false positives [*6]. And a false positive can mean a $13,000 payout to the unethical who can find a clinical justification to have "treated" a COVID-19 patient.

Even if the patient died of a "clear alternative cause," a death is legally deemed a COVID-19 one for reporting purposes, at least in Illinois, according to its Department of Public Health Director, Dr. Ngozi Ezeke [*7].

Since speculation to cause is good enough to put COVID-19 on a death certificate, a VAERS report should be comparably sufficient for chalking up an adverse effect to a COVID-19 vaccine. If the prior-referenced report to the HHS is accurate (i.e. adverse events reported make up 1% of the actual), we should multiply VAERS figures by 100. And, to fairly compare with COVID-19 deaths, we'd have to (1) make VAERS reports mandatory any time someone complained about a COVID-19 vaccine to a healthcare professional and (2) require reporting for people who died of any reason within 28 days of getting a COVID-19 vaccine, even if there was a "clear alternate cause," to be a COVID-19 vaccine-related death. Alas, no such reports exist. Thus, VAERS is the best tool, at present, we have to analyze injuries from COVID-19 vaccines.

Foreign Reports to VAERS Greatly Outpace U.S. Ones
Below is a screenshot of VAERS reporting through August 6, 2021 for all U.S. COVID-19 (COVID) vaccine adverse event reports. About 76 reports out of 451,049 had dates selected prior to December 2020, indicating a scrivener's error was made.

All US incidents from COVID vaccines by month

Note how the reports peaked in April 2021, with 100,278 for that month, and slowly trail off. In May, 59,488 reports. In June, 42,122 reports. In July, 32,702 reports.

When we check for foreign reports (which are separate totals from above), screenshot below, note how the opposite pattern emerges.

All foreign incidents from COVID vaccines by month

Foreign reports account for 120,782 of the COVID vaccine adverse events. They've gradually increased, outpacing the U.S. reports. In April, 13,926 reports. In May, 19,939 reports. In June, 26,876 reports. In July, 29,686 reports. Note how there are 330,267 (nearly 3x) more U.S. reports than foreign ones, which is what we'd expect from a U.S.-based reporting system.

Foreign reports for serious adverse events, like death, permanent disability, and hospitalization, greatly outpace U.S. ones. Let's parse the data by the type of event, starting with death.

All U.S. deaths from COVID vaccines by month

Above, I screenshot the U.S. COVID-vaccine death reports by month. For April, we peek at 1,307. In May, 722 reports. In June, 690 reports. In July, 533 reports.

All foreign deaths from COVID vaccines by month

Contrast U.S. with foreign COVID-vaccine death reports, screenshot above. In April, 1,072 reports. In May, 967 reports. In June, 1,212 reports. In July, 1,373 reports. Note how, despite foreign reports being 21% of the total VAERS reports, there are more foreign death reports than U.S. ones (U.S. 5,859 versus foreign 6,932).

All U.S. permanent disabilities from COVID vaccines by month

We see the same pattern in COVID-vaccine permanent-disability reports. I screenshot the U.S. COVID-vaccine permanent disability reports above. In April, 1,598 reports. In May, 1,290 reports. In June, 1,132 reports. In July, 1,069 reports.

All foreign permanent disabilities from COVID vaccines by month

Above, I screenshot the foreign COVID-vaccine permanent-disability reports. In April, 1,407 reports. In June, 1,914 reports. In July, 2,221 reports. Note how, despite being 21% of reports, foreign reports feature 9,390 permanent disabilities, while U.S. reports are at 6,054.

All US hospitalizations from COVID vaccines by month

And the same pattern emerges for COVID-vaccine hospitalizations. I screenshot the U.S. COVID-vaccine hospitalizations above. For April, they peaked at 6,236. For May, 5,228. For June, 4,276. For July, 3,259. 

All foreign hospitalizations from COVID vaccines by month

I screenshot the foreign COVID-vaccine hospitalizations above. For April, 3,167 reports. For May, 4,185 reports. For June, 5,802 reports. For July, 7,052 reports. Foreign hospitalizations are greatly outpacing U.S. ones.

Not all reports are made in the same month a COVID vaccine was taken. For example, in VAERS ID 1458628-1 (the individual reports can searched and read), a 35-year-old male received one dose of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine on April 17, was hospitalized four days later, and died on May 2, 2021, but the report was made on July 9, 2021 by his brother:

My previously healthy brother received the Pfizer vaccine (1st dose) and 4 days after he was hospitalized with shortness of breath, heart failure, blood clots in his arm, lungs and leg along with a stroke and many medical conditions kept arising as he was hospitalized. He was in the CICU for a week and a half. Unfortunately, my brother passed away from the Pfizer vaccine. Until his last day the doctors still ""didn't know"" what was wrong with him. A lot happened during his hospital stay, but this is just a brief statement. They have been keeping his medical records from me. They tested him repeatedly there from covid and he wa salways [sic] negative. They had no other explanation to what was happening and all along they wanted it to be COVID-19 and were so quick to say it was not the vaccine.

What's the difference when we sort the data by month vaccinated instead of month reported? This information is slightly less useful, because some adverse events can be reported months later. Sometimes, as referenced above, the clinician or individual doesn't get around to reporting the adverse event until months later. And, sometimes, the adverse event isn't even discovered until months later. Still, the comparison of the data between U.S. and foreign reports is interesting.

U.S. reports by month vaccinated

I screenshot the U.S. COVID-vaccine reports, by month vaccinated, above (about 100 reports are scrivener's errors for the month and precede December 2020). Presumably, the report traces from either the month the one vaccine was given or the month the last vaccine given when we select for "month vaccinated." We peak in March, with 95,870 reports. For April, 87,146 reports. For May, 38,025 reports. For June, 17,366 reports. For July, 9,710 reports.

Foreign reports by month vaccinated

The foreign COVID-vaccine reports, by month vaccinated, are screenshot above. They peak in April with 18,394 reports. For May, 19,778. For June, 14,035. For July, 1,940.

US death report by month vaccinated

The US. death reports, by month vaccinated, are screenshot above. They peak in February at 1,423 reports. For March, 1,333 reports. For April, 737 reports. For May, 273 reports. For June, 106 reports. For July 39, reports.

Foreign death report by month vaccinated

Foreign death reports, by month vaccinated, are screenshot above. They peak in January at 1,251 reports. For February, 931 reports. For March, 925 reports. For April, 927 reports. For May, 747 reports. For June, 699 reports. For July, 240 reports. Note the dramatic discrepancy between foreign and U.S. reports for May and June (foreign 1,446 versus U.S. 379).

U.S. permanent-disability report by month vaccinated

U.S. permanent disability reports, by month vaccinated, are screenshot above. They peak in March at 1,901. For April, 1,540 reports. For May, 511 reports. For June, 150 reports. For July, 41 reports.
 

Foreign permanent-disability report by month vaccinated

Foreign permanent disability reports, by month vaccinated, are screenshot above. They peak in January at 2,076. For February, 1,484 reports. For March, 1,056 reports. For April, 1,342 reports. For May, 2,021 reports. For June, 925 reports.

U.S. hospitalizations report by month vaccinated

U.S. hospitalizations reports, by month vaccinated, are screenshot above. They peak in March at 7,175 reports. In April, 5,354 reports. In May, 2,160 reports. In June, 1,116 reports. In July, 318 reports.

Foreign hospitalizations report by month vaccinated

Foreign hospitalization reports, by month vaccinated, are screenshot above. They peak in April at 5,276 reports. For May, 4,222 reports. For June, 2,381 reports. For July, 175 reports. Note how, again, despite being 21% of VAERS reports, foreign hospitalizations are almost the same as those for the U.S. (foreign 24,444 versus U.S. 26,798).

No matter how we slice the data, something is off. The global population is obviously greater than the U.S. population, so more foreign reports than U.S. ones are understandable on that level. But why are foreigners reporting adverse events from the COVID-19 vaccines to a U.S.-based agency so frequently?

More importantly, why are foreign reports outpacing the U.S. ones? Or, why did the U.S. reports feature a sudden drop compared to the foreign ones? Why is there such a large discrepancy?

In a prior piece, I track the week-to-week results in VAERS data and have noticed, of late, about 325 foreign VAERS deaths per week to about 120 U.S. ones [*8]. Why is there this sudden trend toward foreign reporting and/or this sudden trend toward reduced U.S. reporting?

The evidence for funny business is, of course, circumstantial. But direct evidence of funny business, would be a direct confession of fraud, which we're never realistically going to see. Clearly, something is awry.

I'd love to read your thoughts on the matter in the comments below.

---
FOOTNOTES
[*1] https://stratagemsoftheright.blogspot.com/2021/05/covid-19-not-vaccines-represent-41-of.html
[*2] https://wonder.cdc.gov/vaers.html
[*3] https://digital.ahrq.gov/sites/default/files/docs/publication/r18hs017045-lazarus-final-report-2011.pdf
[*4] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg03-508.pdf
[*5] https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/04/24/fact-check-medicare-hospitals-paid-more-covid-19-patients-coronavirus/3000638001/
[*6] https://stratagemsoftheright.blogspot.com/2021/06/false-efficacy-difference-between.html

[*7] https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/05/29/us_covid-19_death_toll_is_inflated.html#!
[*8] https://stratagemsoftheright.blogspot.com/2021/05/covid-19-not-vaccines-represent-41-of.html